Kubva munaNdira kusvika munaNovember 2021, iyo ichangobva kuisirwa photovoltaic simba muChina yaive 34.8GW, gore negore kuwedzera kwe34.5%.Tichifunga kuti ingangoita hafu yesimba rakaiswa muna 2020 zvichaitika muna Zvita, chiyero chekukura kwegore rose ra2021 chichave chakaderera zvakanyanya pane zvinotarisirwa nemusika.China Photovoltaic Indasitiri Association yakadzikisa yayo yegore yakaiswa kugona kufanotaura ne10GW kusvika 45-55GW.
Mushure meiyo kabhoni peak muna 2030 uye chinangwa chekusarerekera kabhoni muna 2060 chaiswa pamberi, mafambiro ese ehupenyu anowanzo tenda kuti indasitiri yephotovoltaic ichaunza nhoroondo yebudiriro yegoridhe kutenderera, asi kukwira kwemitengo muna 2021 kwakagadzira yakanyanyisa maindasitiri nharaunda.
Kubva kumusoro kusvika pasi, iyo photovoltaic indasitiri cheni yakakamurwa kuita mana ekugadzira zvinongedzo: silicon zvinhu, silicon wafers, maseru uye modules, pamwe nemagetsi chiteshi kusimudzira, anokwana mashanu ekubatanidza.
Mushure mekutanga kwa2021, mutengo wesilicon wafers, cell conduction, superimposed glass, EVA firimu, backplane, furemu nezvimwe zvinhu zvekubatsira zvichawedzera.Mutengo wemodule wakasundidzirwa kumashure ku2 yuan/W makore matatu apfuura mukati megore, uye ichave 1.57 muna 2020. Yuan/W.Mumakore gumi apfuura kana zvakadaro, mitengo yezvikamu zvakateedzera unilateral yakadzika pfungwa, uye kudzoserwa kwemutengo muna 2021 kwakadzora kuda kuisa zviteshi zvemagetsi zvepasi.
Mune ramangwana, kusaenzana kwekuvandudzwa kwezvibatanidza zvakasiyana-siyana muketani ye photovoltaic industry ichaenderera mberi.Kuve nechokwadi chekuchengetedza cheni yekugovera inyaya yakakosha kumakambani ese.Kuchinja kwemitengo kunoderedza zvakanyanya mwero wekuteerera uye kukanganisa mukurumbira weindasitiri.
Zvichienderana nezvinotarisirwa pasi pemutengo weindastiri cheni uye hombe yepurojekiti yekuchengetedza, Photovoltaic Industry Association inofanotaura kuti ichangobva kuiswa photovoltaic simba muna 2022 ingangopfuura 75GW.Pakati pavo, iyo yakagoverwa photovoltaic mamiriro ekunze ari kutora chimiro zvishoma nezvishoma, uye musika unotanga kuumbwa.
Inokurudzirwa nezvinangwa zviviri-kabhoni, capital iri kutsvanzvadzira kuwedzera photovoltaics, kutenderera kutsva kwekuwedzera kwesimba kwatanga, kuwanda kwemaitiro uye kusaenzana kuchiripo, uye kunogona kutowedzera.Pasi pekurwa pakati pevatambi vatsva nevakuru, chimiro cheindasitiri hachidzivisiki.
1, kuchine gore rakanaka resilicon zvinhu
Pasi pekukwira kwemutengo muna 2021, iwo mana makuru malink ekugadzira photovoltaic achave asina kuenzana.
Kubva munaNdira kusvika munaGunyana, mitengo yezvinhu zvesilicon, silicon wafers, solar cell, uye modules yakawedzera ne165%, 62.6%, 20%, uye 10.8%, zvichiteerana.Iko kukwira kwemutengo kunokonzerwa nekupihwa kwakanyanya kwezvinhu zvesilicon uye kushomeka kwemutengo wepamusoro.Iwo akanyanya kuomeswa nesilicon wafer makambani akakohwawo mibairo muhafu yekutanga yegore.Muchikamu chechipiri chegore, purofiti yakadzikira nekuda kwekuburitswa kwehunyanzvi hutsva hwekugadzira uye kuneta kwemitengo yakaderera;kugona kupfuudza mitengo pabhatiri uye module inopera Yakanyanya kusimba, uye purofiti yakakuvadzwa zvakanyanya.
Nekuvhurwa kwerutsva rutsva rwemakwikwi ekugona, kugovera purofiti kudivi rekugadzira kuchachinja muna 2022: Silicon zvinhu zvinoramba zvichiita purofiti, makwikwi esilicon wafer anotyisa, uye bhatiri uye module purofiti inotarisirwa kudzoserwa.
Gore rinouya, kupihwa kwese uye kudiwa kwezvinhu zvesilicon zvicharamba zvakadzikama, uye mutengo wepakati uchaenda pasi, asi chinongedzo ichi chicharamba chichichengetedza purofiti yakakwira.Muna 2021, kupihwa kwese kweanosvika mazana mashanu nemakumi masere ezviuru zvematani esilicon zvinhu zvinowirirana nezvinodiwa zvekumisikidza terminal;zvisinei, zvichienzaniswa nesilicon wafer end ine simba rekugadzira rinopfuura 300 GW, iri kushomeka, zvinotungamira kune chiitiko chekumhanya, kuhodha, uye kutyaira mitengo mumusika.
Kunyangwe mapurofiti akakwira ezvigadzirwa zvesilicon muna 2021 akatungamira mukuwedzera kwekugadzirwa, nekuda kwezvipingamupinyi zvekupinda zvakanyanya uye marefu ekuwedzera kugadzirwa, gaka rekugadzira kugadzirwa nesilicon wafers gore rinouya richaramba riri pachena.
Pakupera kwa2022, iyo yemba yepolysilicon yekugadzira huwandu ichave 850,000 matani / gore.Tichifunga nezvesimba rekugadzira mhiri kwemakungwa, inogona kusangana neyakaisirwa kudiwa kwe230GW.Pakupera kwa2022, makambani eTop5 chete esilicon wafer achawedzera nezve 100GW yehukuru hutsva, uye huwandu hwese hwesilicon wafers huchave pedyo ne500GW.
Tichifunga zvinhu zvisina chokwadi senge kumhanya kwekuburitswa kwesimba, mbiri mbiri yekushandisa simba rekudzora zviratidzo, uye kuwedzeredza, hutsva hwekugadzira silicon huchaganhurwa muhafu yekutanga ya2022, yakasimudzwa pane yakaoma kudzika kwemvura kudiwa, uye kusimba kwakaringana uye kudiwa.Supply tension muhafu yechipiri yegore ichave yakanyatso kuderedzwa.
Panyaya yemitengo yesilicon yezvinhu, hafu yekutanga ye2022 ichadzikira zvishoma, uye kudzikira kunogona kukurumidza muhafu yechipiri yegore.Mutengo wepagore unogona kunge uri 150,000-200,000 yuan/ton.
Kunyangwe mutengo uyu wadonha kubva muna 2021, uchiri padanho repamusoro munhoroondo, uye huwandu hwekushandisa uye purofiti yevanotungamira vanogadzira icharamba ichikwira.
Inokurudzirwa nemitengo, ingangoita ese anotungamira epamba silicon zvinhu zvakatokanda kunze zvirongwa zvekuwedzera kugadzirwa kwavo.Kazhinji, kutenderera kwekugadzirwa kwesilicon zvinhu purojekiti ingangoita mwedzi gumi nemisere, mwero wekuburitsa wehuwandu hwekugadzira unononoka, kuchinjika kwesimba rekugadzira zvakare idiki, uye mari yekutanga uye yekuvhara yakakwira.Kana iyo terminal yangotanga kugadzirisa, iyo silicon zvinhu chinongedzo inowira mune inongoitika mamiriro.
Iyo yenguva pfupi yekupihwa kwezvinhu zvesilicon inoramba yakasimba, uye huwandu hwekugadzira hucharamba huchiburitswa mumakore 2-3 anotevera, uye kupa kunogona kudarika kudiwa mukati uye kwenguva refu.
Parizvino, huwandu hwakarongwa hwekugadzira hwakaziviswa nemakambani esilicon hwapfuura matani 3 miriyoni, hunogona kusangana nezvinodiwa zvakaiswa zve1,200GW.Tichifunga nezvehukuru hukuru huri kuvakwa, mazuva akanaka emakambani esilicon anogona kunge ari 2022 chete.
2, Iyo nguva ye-high-profit silicon wafers yapera
Muna 2022, chikamu chesilicon wafer chinoravira muchero unovava wekuwedzera-kuwedzera simba rekugadzira uye ive chikamu chinokwikwidza zvakanyanya.Pundutso uye kutariswa kwemaindasitiri kuchadzikira, uye zvinozoonekana kune makore mashanu-yakanyanya purofiti nguva.
Yakasimudzwa neakaviri-kabhoni zvinangwa, iyo yepamusoro-purofiti, yakaderera-chikumbaridzo silicon wafer segment inofarirwa zvakanyanya ne capital.Mhindu yakawandisa inopera zvishoma nezvishoma nekuwedzera kwesimba rekugadzira, uye kuwedzera kwemutengo kwezvinhu zvesilicon kunomhanyisa kukukurwa kwesilicon wafer purofiti.Muhafu yechipiri ya2022, nekuburitswa kweiyo silicon nyowani yekugadzira zvinhu, mutengo wehondo ungangoitika pasilicon wafer end.Panguva iyoyo, purofiti ichave yakadzvanywa zvakanyanya, uye imwe yechipiri neyechitatu-mutsara wekugadzira mitsara inogona kubva pamusika.
Nekushevedzera kwekukwira kwesilicon zvinhu uye mitengo yakapfava, uye nerutsigiro rwekudzika kwakasimba kudiwa kweiyo yakaiswa simba, purofiti yemasero ezuva uye zvikamu muna 2022 ichagadziriswa, uye hapazove nechikonzero chekutambura nekutsemuka.
3, Kugadzirwa kwePhotovoltaic kunoumba mamiriro matsva emakwikwi
Zvinoenderana nefungidziro iri pamusoro, iyo inonyanya kurwadza chikamu cheiyo photovoltaic indasitiri chain muna 2022 ndiyo yakanyanya kusara yesilicon wafers, pakati peiyo nyanzvi yesilicon wafer vagadziri ndivo vakawanda;avo vanonyanya kufara vachiri makambani e-silicon, uye vatungamiri vachawana purofiti yakawanda.
Parizvino, huwandu hwemari hwemakambani ephotovoltaic hwakakwidziridzwa zvakanyanya, asi kukurumidza kufambira mberi kwetekinoroji kwaita kuti iwedzere kuderera kweasset.Muchirevo chechinyorwa chino, kusanganisa kwakamira bakatwa rinocheka kaviri, kunyanya mumanongedzo maviri uko mabhatiri uye zvinhu zvesilicon zvakadyarwa zvakanyanya.Kudyidzana inzira yakanaka.
Nekugadziridzwazve kwemaindasitiri purofiti uye kuwanda kwevatambi vatsva, iyo inokwikwidza mamiriro eiyo photovoltaic indasitiri muna 2022 ichave zvakare iine misiyano mikuru.
Kukurudzirwa nezvinangwa zviviri-kabhoni, vanopinda vatsva vakawanda vari kuisa mari mukugadzira photovoltaic, izvo zvinounza matambudziko makuru kumakambani echinyakare photovoltaic uye zvinogona kutungamira kune shanduko huru muchimiro cheindasitiri.
Iyi inguva yekutanga munhoroondo kuti mhiri-muganhu capital yakapinda mukugadzira photovoltaic pamwero mukuru kudaro.Vanopinda vatsva vanogara vaine mukana wekunonoka kutanga, uye vatambi vekare vasina kukwikwidza kwepakati vanogona kubviswa nyore nyore nevatsva vane hupfumi hwakapfuma.
4, Chiteshi chemagetsi chakagovaniswa hachisisiri basa rekutsigira
Chiteshi chemagetsi ndicho chinongedzo chezasi che photovoltaics.Muna 2022, chiteshi chemagetsi chakaiswa simba chimiro chicharatidzawo zvitsva.
Photovoltaic simba zvidyarwa zvinogona kukamurwa kuita mhando mbiri: pakati uye kugoverwa.Iyo yekupedzisira yakakamurwa kuita maindasitiri nekutengesa uye kushandiswa kwemhuri.Kubatsirwa kubva mukurudziro yegwaro uye mutemo wekupa rubatsiro masendi matatu pakilowatt-awa yemagetsi, mushandisi akaiswa simba akakwira mudenga;nepo centralized yakaiswa huwandu hwadzikira nekuda kwekuwedzera kwemitengo, mukana wekugovaniswa wakasimwa huwandu muna 2021 uchakwira kurekodha, uye chikamu chehuwandu hwakaiswa huchawedzerwa zvakare.Super centralized kekutanga munhoroondo.
Kubva munaNdira kusvika Gumiguru 2021, yakagovaniswa masimba akaiswa aive 19GW, achiverengera angangoita makumi matanhatu neshanu muzana ehuwandu hwakaiswa panguva imwe chete, iyo kushandiswa kwemhuri kwakawedzera ne106% gore-pa-gore kusvika 13.6GW, iyo yaive sosi huru. itsva yakaiswa simba.
Kwenguva yakareba, iyo yakagoverwa photovoltaic musika yakave yakanyanya kugadzirwa nemabhizinesi akazvimirira nekuda kwekuparadzaniswa kwayo uye diki diki.Iyo inogona kuiswa simba yekugovera photovoltaic munyika inodarika 500GW.Nekudaro, nekuda kwekusanzwisisa kwakaringana kwemitemo nedzimwe hurumende dzenzvimbo nemabhizinesi uye kushomeka kwehurongwa hwese, nyonganiso yaiwanzoitika mumabasa chaiwo.Zvinoenderana nenhamba kubva kuChina Photovoltaic Industry Association, chiyero chezviyero zvakakura-mapurojekiti anodarika 60GW zvakaziviswa muChina, uye huwandu hwese hwekutumirwa kwemagetsi emagetsi ephotovoltaic mumatunhu gumi nepfumbamwe (matunhu nemaguta) angangoita 89.28 GW.
Zvichienderana neizvi, kusimudzira zvinotarisirwa pasi pemutengo weindastiri ketani, iyo China Photovoltaic Industry Association inofanotaura kuti ichangobva kuiswa photovoltaic kugona muna 2022 ichave inopfuura 75GW.
Nguva yekutumira: Jan-06-2022