Kunyange zvazvo mafuta efossil ane simba uye akaumba nguva yemazuva ano anga ariwo chinhu chikuru chiri kukonzera dambudziko remamiriro ekunze.Zvakadaro, simba richavawo chinhu chakakosha pakubata nemhedzisiro yekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze: shanduko yesimba rakachena repasi rose ine mhedzisiro yehupfumi inounza tariro itsva yeramangwana redu.
Mafuta ezvicherwa akaumba musimboti wegadziriro yesimba repasi rose, zvichiunza kukura kwehupfumi kusati kwamboitika uye kuchikurudzira chimanjemanje.Kushandiswa kwesimba repasi rose kwakawedzera kakapetwa makumi mashanu mumazana maviri emakore apfuura, zvichipa simba kusimudzira nzanga yevanhu, asi zvichikonzera kukanganisa kusati kwamboitika.CO2mazinga emumhepo yedu asvika pamazinga akafanana neaya akanyoreswa makore 3-5 miriyoni apfuura, apo avhareji tembiricha yaive 2-3°C kudziya uye mwero wegungwa wakakwira 10-20 metres.Vezvesainzi vakabvumirana nezvemamiriro ekunze ekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze, IPCC ichiti “simba revanhu pamamiriro okunze riri pachena, uye kubudiswa kwemagasi egreenhouse kuchangobva kuitika ndiko kwakanyanya kudarika munhoroondo yevanhu.”
Mukupindura dambudziko remamiriro ekunze, zvibvumirano zvepasi rose zvakatarisana nekuderedza CO2utsi kuitira kudzivirira kuwedzera kwekushisa uye kuderedza kushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze anthropogenic.Mbiru yepakati yekuedza uku inotenderera nekuvandudza chikamu chemagetsi uye kuenda kune yakaderera-kabhoni hupfumi.Izvi zvinoda shanduko yave pedyo kuenda kusimba rinodzokororwa, zvichipihwa kuti chikamu chesimba chinotora zvikamu zviviri muzvitatu zvekubuda kwepasi rose.Munguva yakapfuura, chinhu chikuru chinonamira mushanduko iyi yanga iri hupfumi huri kumashure kwekubva pamafuta ezvicherwa: tichabhadhara sei shanduko iyi uye nekubhadhara mabasa asingaverengeki akarasika?Zvino, mufananidzo uri kuchinja.Pane humbowo hunowedzera hunoratidza kuti nhamba dziri seri kwekuchinja kwesimba rakachena dzine musoro.
Kupindura kukwira kweCO2 mazinga
Maererano neSangano reWorld Meteorological Organisation(WMO) 2018 kudzidza, atmospheric greenhouse gasi mazinga, anoti carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), uye nitrous oxide (N2O), zvese zvakasvika pakakwirira patsva muna 2017.
The energy sector account for around35% yeCO2 inobuda.Izvi zvinosanganisira kupiswa kwemarasha, gasi rechisikigo, uye mafuta emagetsi nekupisa (25%), pamwe nekumwe kuburitswa kusingaenderane nemagetsi kana kugadzirwa kwekupisa, sekubvisa mafuta, kunatsa, kugadzirisa, uye kutakura (imwezve gumi. %).
Haisi chete iyo chikamu chesimba chinobatsira kune chikamu cheshumba chekubuda, kune zvakare kukura kunoramba kuripo mukudiwa kwesimba.Tichitungamirwa nehupfumi hwenyika hwakasimba, pamwe nekupisa kwakanyanya uye kutonhora kwezvinodiwa, kushandiswa kwesimba repasi rose kwakawedzera ne2.3% muna 2018, kunenge kupeta avhareji yekukura kubva muna 2010.
DE carbonization yakaenzana nekubvisa kana kudzikisa kabhoni dhaikisaidhi kubva kune esimba uye nekudaro kuita shanduko yesimba rakachena, kusimuka kubva pamafuta ezvicherwa uye kumbundira simba rinogoneka.Chinhu chakakosha kana tichizosiyanisa zvakaipisisa zvinokonzerwa nekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze.
Kwete "chete" nezvekuita chinhu chakanaka
Mabhenefiti ekuchinja kwesimba rakachena haangogumiri paku "ngori" kudzivirira dambudziko remamiriro ekunze.“Kune zvimwe zvinobatsira zvingapfuura nekuderedza kudziya kwepasi.Semuyenzaniso, kusvibiswa kwemhepo kwakadzikira kuchava nemigumisiro yakanaka pautano hwevanhu” anodaro Ramiro Parrado weCMCC's Economic analysis of Climate Impact and Policy Division pavakabvunzurudzwa nezvechinyorwa chino.Pamusoro pehutano hwakanaka, nyika dziri kusarudzawo kuwana simba radzo kubva kune zvinogonekazve kuti dzisanyanya kutsamira pakutenga kwemagetsi kunze kwenyika, kunyanya nyika dzisingaburitse oiri.Nenzira iyi, kusawirirana kwezvematongerwo enyika kunodziviswa sezvo nyika dzichigadzira simba radzo.
Nekudaro, kunyangwe zvakanakira shanduko yesimba kune hutano huri nani, kugadzikana kwegeopolitical uye kuwana kwezvakatipoteredza haisi nhau;hazvina kumbokwana kuti zviunze shanduko yesimba yakachena.Sezvinowanzoitika, chinoita kuti nyika itenderere imari… uye iko zvino mari yave kufamba nenzira kwayo.
Bhuku rinokura remabhuku rinoratidza kuti shanduko yesimba yakachena yaizouya pamwe chete nekukura kweGDP uye kuwedzera kwemabasa.Vane simba2019 IRENA reportinoratidza kuti paUSD 1 yega yega inoshandiswa pakuchinja kwesimba panogona kuve nemubhadharo wepakati peUSD 3 neUSD 7, kana USD 65 matiriyoni neUSD 160 tiririyoni maererano nekuwedzerwa mukati menguva kusvika 2050. Zvakakwana kuwana vatambi vakuru veindasitiri nevagadziri vemitemo. kufarira zvakakomba.
Kana zvichingoonekwa sezvisingavimbike uye zvinodhura zvakanyanya, zvinovandudzwa zvave kuita chiratidzo chezvirongwa zve decarbonization.Chinhu chikuru chave chiri kudonha kwemitengo, iyo iri kutyaira iyo bhizinesi nyaya yesimba rinowanikwazve.Tekinoroji dzinogona kudzokororwa senge hydropower uye geothermal dzave dzichikwikwidza kwemakore uye ikozvino solar nemhepo zviri kukwikwidza.kuwana mukana wekukwikwidza semugumisiro wekufambira mberi kwetekinoroji uye kuwedzera kwekudyara, kukwikwidzana neakajairika tekinoroji maererano nemutengo mumisika zhinji yepamusoro yepasirese,kunyange pasina rubatsiro.
Chimwe chiratidziro chakasimba chemabhenefiti emari ekuchinja kwesimba rakachena isarudzo yevatambi vakuru vezvemari kuti vanyure mufossil mafuta simba uye kuisa mari mune zvinovandudzwa.The Norwegian sovereign wealth fund neHSBC vari kuita nhanho dzekubvisa marasha, neaimbova nguva pfupi yadarika.kurasira mari mumakambani masere emafuta uye vanopfuura 150 vanogadzira oiri.Achitaura nezvedanho rehomwe yeNorway, Tom Sanzillo, mukuru wezvemari weInstitute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, akati: “Aya mashoko anokosha zvikuru anobva kuhomwe huru.Vari kuzviita nekuti fossil mafuta emasheya haasi kuburitsa kukosha kwaainako kare.Yambiro zvakare kune makambani anogadzira mafuta akabatanidzwa kuti vanoisa mari dzavo pavari kuvatarisa kuti hupfumi hwenyika huenderere mberi mukugadzira magetsi emagetsi.”
Investment mapoka, akadaiDivestInvestuyeCA100+, vari kuisawo dzvinyiriro kumabhizinesi kuti vaderedze tsoka dzavo dzekabhoni.PaCOP24 chete, boka revasima mari mazana mana negumi neshanu, vanomiririra mari inopfuura 32 miriyoni yemadhora, vakataura kuzvipira kwavo kuChibvumirano cheParis: mupiro wakakura.Kushevedzwa kwekuita kunosanganisira kuda kuti hurumende dziise mutengo pacarbon, dzibvise rubatsiro rwemafuta efossil, uye kubvisa magetsi emarasha.
Asi, zvakadini neaya mabasa ose angarasika kana tikabva paindasitiri yemafuta ezvicherwa?Parrado anotsanangura kuti: “Sekuchinja kwese kuchange kuine zvikamu zvichakanganisika uye kubva pazvicherwa zvichireva kurasikirwa kwemabasa muchikamu ichocho.Zvisinei, fungidziro dzinofanotaura kuti nhamba yemabasa matsva anogadzirwa ichatopfuura kurasikirwa nemabasa.Mikana yemabasa ndiyo inonyanya kutariswa mukuronga kukura kwehupfumi hwekabhoni uye hurumende zhinji dzave kukoshesa kuvandudzwa kwesimba rinowanikwazve, kutanga kudzikisa kuburitsa uye kuzadzisa zvinangwa zvemamiriro ekunze ekunze, asiwo mukutsvaga mabhenefiti ehupfumi hwevanhu sekuwedzera kwemabasa uye kugara zvakanaka. .
A yakachena simba ramangwana
Ikozvino simba paradigm rinotiita kuti tibatanidze kushandiswa kwesimba nekuparadzwa kwepasi redu.Izvi zvinodaro nekuti takapisa mafuta efossil tichichinjana nekuwana masevhisi emagetsi akachipa uye akawanda.Zvisinei, kana tichida kugadzirisa dambudziko remamiriro ekunze simba richaramba riri chinhu chinokosha mukushandiswa kwekugadzirisa uye kuderedza nzira dzinodiwa kuti titarisane nedambudziko remamiriro ekunze uye mukuenderera mberi kwekubudirira kwevanhu vedu.Simba ndicho chikonzero chematambudziko edu uye chishandiso chekuagadzirisa nacho.
Hupfumi huri seri kweshanduko hwakasimba uye, pamwe chete nemamwe masimba ane simba ekuchinja, pane tariro itsva mune remangwana resimba rakachena.
Nguva yekutumira: Jun-03-2021